Press Release

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
November 20, 2008

Contact: Olivia Goumbri, Venezuela Information Office, 202-347-8081

New Poll Shows PSUV Will Win Most States in Regional Elections

A poll released on Tuesday, November 18th, 2008 by the Venezuelan firm Consultores 30.11 projects that a majority of state governorships will be won by candidates of the PSUV (United Socialist Party of Venezuela) in regional elections this Sunday. In three states, however, a very tight race is expected to ensue.

The poll finds that indicators suggest voting trends in the November 23rd elections resemble those present in the previous presidential election in December 2006, in which President Chávez won with 62.84% support.

States are put into three categories; those with a low probability of change in voter behavior that are “strongly consolidated” in favor of an opposition or PSUV candidate, states that are fairly “consolidated,” and others that will see “very close” electoral races.

Eleven states are considered “strongly consolidated,” and of these, ten are expected to be won by pro-government PSUV candidates. Ten states are considered “consolidated,” and all in this category are likely to be won by PSUV candidates – only two of them, Cojedes and Delta Amacuro – appear slightly more likely to break with past voting trends.

The most interesting states to watch this election will be Sucre, Carabobo, and Zulia. Consultores 30.11 predicts that this is where “very close” races will play out on election day. The poll finds that significant shifts during campaigning make the outcome of voting in these three states the most difficult to assess. As of the time of this poll, Sucre appeared to be the most likely to elect a pro-government candidate.

View the full poll results here: click here.

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